3 Years Out - Let the Speculation Begin, Pt. 1

2008 - It's time to start speculating.

We at The Last Polka will begin the speculation with one of our favorite potential Democratic Presidential Candidates (part 2 will discuss a Republican to be named later). This individual is a moderate who has had a great deal of success in a Red State. He is a governor and hails from outside the beltway (although Richmond is not too far away). With the right people around him and enough money, he has great potential. Who is it that we are talking about?

Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA)

Gov. Warner has been pushed into the spotlight in the last few weeks after his Lieutenant Governor, Tim Kaine, was elected to be Warner's successor. Kaine will take over after Warner's constitutionally limited one term governorship comes to an end in the coming months. There are several factors working in Gov. Warner's favor in his potential presidential bid. Let's begin...

Red State Credentials
There was some talk in the 2004 election of Virginia possibly 'going blue' largely due to the increased influence of the more affluent, suburban northern part of the state. Needless to say, this did not happen; President Bush swept the south, including a comfortable 9 point margin of victory in Virginia. Although I hate to give in to the prevailing conventional wisdom, I seriously doubt the chances of a northern, elitist liberal being elected president (sorry Hillary). I need not remind you that the most recent Democratic presidents have, at the very least, been able to appeal to Southern voters. Mark Warner has the ability to do this. A key part to his victory in 2001 was his ability, even as a wealthy businessman, to appeal to rural voters in Virginia. He is comfortable in his own skin and voters recognize and respect this. For instance, during his campaign for governor in 2001, he identified with rural and traditionally Republican voters with his pro-gun views and his attendance at NASCAR events. As Larry Sabato, the famous UVA professor (and founder of Sabato's Crystal Ball, here: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/) told NPR's Juan Williams(NPR's 2/7/05 Morning Edition):

He understood that rural Virginians, who tend to be the most Republican,
love NASCAR. Every chance he got, he was at a NASCAR event.

Furthermore, Gov. Warner didn't merely survive his four years as governor - he accomplished a great deal (which will be discussed below). He pushed through controversial legislation and programs through a Republican controlled state legislature. And what does Warner have to show for it? Only an approval rating in the mid 60's (according to Survey USA, here: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=2f8590f6-a3ae-434b-bd1a-fddd1ff9556e). Just a reminder: that's an approval rating well over 60% for a Democrat in a RED STATE. What's the bottom line: Mark Warner, with his bipartisan appeal, puts the South in play for the Dems. Whether Democratic primary voters will realize this remains to be seen.

Executive Experience

Another bit of conventional wisdom that I tend to, reluctantly, concur with is the idea that governors have a much better shot at the presidency than members of Congress. This trend has repeated itself time and time again in recent history (Bush II, Clinton, Reagan) for several reason, not the least of which is the experience one gains as the chief executive of a state. For Mark Warner, 'Governor' is more than merely a title. In four years as governor of Virginia, he did something that many politicians (particularly those in Washington) have a hard time doing - he actually governed. Consider,

Shortly after taking office, however, Warner found himself faced with a $3 billion budget shortfall (much larger than his predecessor had suggested it would be). He spent the first two years in office cutting spending, ultimately reducing state expenditures by a total of $6 billion and eliminating 3,000 positions for good....He eliminated 50 state boards and commissions and cut spending in every agency aside from K-12 education (from Governing Magazine's November 2004 issue).

A Democrat with fiscally conservative credentials - sounds extremely attractive to me. For his honesty with Virginians and the effectiveness of his policies, Warner was named one of Governing Magazine's Public Officials Of The Year (http://www.governing.com/poy/2004/warner.htm); In a recent issue of Time, Warner was named one of the nation's five best governors (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1129494,00.html). As Time reported, under Warner, Virginia "tied with Utah as the best-managed state in the country, as rated by the Government Performance Project, an academic group." So he brings not only the title of 'Governor' with him, he brings real experience and results. (Bonus: As a presidential candidate, Warner can steal the deficit reduction angle from the Republicans. Downside: He also increased taxes in Virginia, something the Republicans would undoubtedly pounce upon in any Presidential campaign. But we're getting ahead of ourselves here, aren't we...)

Bipartisan Appeal

Republicans and Democrats have a choice in the upcoming election cycles, both '06 and '08: will they settle for candidates who pander to their respective bases and again ignore the vast moderate middle of America, or will they support candidates who can actually bring people together and solve problems (because let's face it, we have a lot of problems). Here's my take on this: regardless of what national party leaders do, across the nation, voters are tired of partisan attacks and bickering. Despite close election results and the so-called culture war, Americans yearn for cooperation in government. Mark Warner can tap into this vast moderate middle and attract both traditional Americans and more progressive Americans. If the powers that be reach the same conclusions that I have (and I seriously doubt they will), they would be well advised to pour money into a possible Warner '08 campaign. The trouble Warner will have, like any moderate in either party, is in securing his party's nomination and enough money to fund a general election campaign. Even if Democratic primary voters rebel from the establishment and nominate a middle of the road candidate, it may be difficult to raise the funds necessary to win in November. On the other hand, if a moderate like Warner is nominated (admittedly, this is still a long shot) Democratic activists, so frustrated by 8 years of GW Bush, may do whatever it takes ($$$$$$) to get a Dem elected. Bottom line: if Democrats decide to appeal to moderates rather than the 'radical' fringe of their own party, Warner should be seriously considered.

Regardless of the many factors working both in favor and against a moderate like Mark Warner, he has one thing that many politicians in Washington and around the nation don't: Virginia's one term limit allows him to begin traveling the country, meeting voters, and raising money in key primary states. He has already began this effort, through his Forward Together PAC. Let's watch what happens over the next two years. Don't be surprised to see Mark Warner as a serious contender for the Democratic nomination in '08.

UPDATE: The Washington Post reports that Warner made his "first political visit to the home of the nation's first primary Friday, attending a roundtable discussion on high school dropout prevention in Nashua and speaking to a gathering of Democratic activists in Manchester" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/18/AR2005111802660.html). And it starts...

UPDATE II: The Washington Post has more on Warner's NH trip, here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/20/AR2005112001463.html