There's Still Hope...

The recent Palestinian election, which saw the militant Hamas organization (best known for its calls for the destruction of Israel and terrorist attacks) win a decisive majority of parliamentary seats, have led many in the international community and the media to leap to conclusions regarding the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Hamas has supported/carried out numerous terrorist attacks on Israelis, their recent foray into electoral politics could be interpreted as a hopeful sign, not necessarily a doomsday scenario. It appears that if Fatah's leaders want to have any say in the direction of the Palestinian cause, they must do several things: First, this was a classic protest vote - the results may be interpreted as more anti-Fatah than pro-Hamas. As such, Fatah's leaders need to clean their own house and settle the internal bickering that has significantly weakened their position. Secondly, Fatah needs to remain open to any type of partnership that Hamas is willing to accept. According to shear numbers, Hamas doesn't need Fatah to form a majority coalition--they won enough seats to stand alone. However, as the AP notes, "But Fatah could help Hamas by serving as a a conduit for talks with Israel" - that's assuming that Hamas will eventually recognize Israel and both sides will even consider negotiating with each other. However, their willingness to even participate in the political process is a hopeful sign. With a taste of actual power, rather than the illusion of power that terrorist actions create, Hamas may see it in their best interest to lay down their arms and work for the good of the Palestinian people. Am I ignoring the fact that they have an ugly past full of heinous actions? Does my recognition of certain political realities make me a sissy liberal Israel-hater? I don't think so. Leaders on both sides have had innocent blood on their hands for decades. Hamas is no different.

History has seen similar movements turn to legitimate political means in other areas of the world (more on that later). If the relatively moderate elements of Hamas (or perhaps just the power hungry ones) choose to recognize Israel - something polling shows a majority Palestinian voters support - and can marginalize the radical elements, this will indeed be a relatively positive occurrence. This marginalization of the radical elements will require significant help from the international community; as a report (pre election) from the International Crisis Group suggests, "[T]he international community's best remaining option is to maximizee the Islamist movement's incentives to move in a political direction through a policy of gradual, conditional engagement."

One final point: this election was never going to speed up the peace process, especially with Sharon in the state that he is in and thsubsequentnt power vacuum. At the same time, if Hamas does moderate and engage in legitimate politics rather than a continued terror campaign, it too will take time. Nothing is going to happen fast. However, the road to peace has not been blocked with the election results. There still is hope...More of my thoughts later.