Will He Or Won't He?

Howard Fineman writes about the biggest wildcard facing Republican Presidential hopefuls: Will 'America's mayor,' Rudy Giuliani, run for president in 2008? There's not too much in the article that we don't already know, but a Giuliani candidacy would change everything. Here's Fineman:

The effect of a Rudy run? There are those who think the presence of a pro-choice, pro-gay-rights New Yorker would help McCain by making him seem to be a comparative godsend to evangelicals. But the two men, who are personally close, occupy the same macho shelf space, and the clear hope and expectation among McCainanites is that Rudy will ultimately stand down. [...]

But those who say he'll fold may not know the man, his history or what he is really up to. Decades of jousting with the New York press have left him with a hide of titanium. [...] A few weeks ago in Florida, he did the drop-by of all drop-bys as the "surprise guest" at the annual convention of the Global Pastors Network. He wowed them with his energy and his revival-style witness to his faith in Jesus. Ralph Reed, a godfather of religious conservatives, thinks Giuliani's charisma may help him overcome his social-issues liberalism in the Bible belt. "He can take control of a room better than any politician I've seen," said Reed. The key moment with the pastors was in the private holding room, where he spent quality time among their leaders. Giuliani told them that the key to his final decision on whether to run would be whether he thought he could raise enough cash. But he didn't sound as if he had much doubt and nothing going on in Memphis this week is likely to change his mind.

First of all, if Giuliani runs and wins in '08, it won't be with the help of Evangelicals. That being said, Giuliani, even without the eamaneuveringring and groundwork that other candidates are doing, can still play the role of a spoiler in '08. There's plenty of time for Giuliani to decide to run and win the nomination. Also, the more I think about McCain, the more I think that being the frontrunner two and a half years out might end up biting him in the ass. I generally like McCain and have been pretty high on him for a while; I'm starting to come down, especially after what he did in Memphis.

I haven't yet commented on McCain's much publicized write in campaign for President Bush, so I'll say a bit here. I thought it was foolish and cowardly. While he was right that the president certainly needs the support of his base, the SRLC's straw vote wasn't the right way to do it. The SRLC was going to boost GOP confidence regardless of who won the straw poll. This was a way for McCain, indeed the frontrunner at this early stage, to not embarrassedssed by a third or fourth place showing. McCain knew he wasn't going to win the straw poll and therefore, he didn't want to participate. In practice, straw polls don't mean anything; but for politicians with egos who don't like to lose, straw polls mean a great deal.

UPDATE (3/15/06 - 8:55PM): RUDY!!!!! - "The Fix" weighs in on Giuliani.